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Thursday, June 26, 2014

Q1 GDP crash

Zerohedge pretends to take the BEA numbers seriously:
Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.6%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it's a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and is the worst print since Q1 2009. And while a bad GDP print was largely expected, the driver wasn't: personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected, meaning that all hope of a consumer recovery is dead. Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947.
When I wrote The Return of the Great Depression in 2009, I noted that the average GDP revisions were larger than the delta that distinguished growth from recession. Now the revisions are nearly THREE TIMES larger.

This is the realm of pure fiction. One reason I don't write as much about economics these days is that there is simply nothing of substance to write about. Taking these increasingly fictitious numbers seriously is akin to attempting to foresee future events by counting the numbers of fairies in your backyard.

All this tells us is that their attempt to maintain "the recovery narrative" is failing. But we knew that already.

Labels:

77 Comments:

Anonymous jake June 26, 2014 9:06 AM  

Question, Vox:

People are fond of pointing out that fiat currencies typically have a life cycle, then implode.

However, in most historical cases they point to, there were other non-fiat economies of significance. Today, no nation of significance is non-fiat.

So, does this not mean that the former limiting mechanism will not apply in this current global system? (I am not arguing that fiat can last forever, of course.)

I still see no reason to expect high inflation, and especially not hyper-inflation in the US.

The real question will be what the Fed does with the QE crap it bought.

Anonymous onejohn612 June 26, 2014 9:06 AM  

Let's see where was I...909, 910, 911...there are 911 in my backyard, it will be a very good year.

Anonymous Rantor June 26, 2014 9:11 AM  

Based on fuzzy maths and made up numbers it does indeed appear that most of the positive GDP prints for years now are only in thanks to Fed Reserve stimulus efforts. Shadowstats shows negative GDP since 2004 but the chuckleheads on all the news and business networks just read the scripts they are given and sing the government's lies to the people.

Reading Wright's Golden Age trilogy and I just get the feeling that I am some kind of ancient beast refusing to let my mind join the current oecumen knowing full well that my body must participate to survive.

Anonymous bw June 26, 2014 9:12 AM  

The cause is the debasement of the population at large.

The debasement of the currency and the lying numbers game is just a symptom.

Anonymous Regressivus Maximus June 26, 2014 9:14 AM  

Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing? I have seen catastrophic collapse predicted for at least the last five years. What will reliable indicators be? I ask because I'd like to max out my credit cards on gold just before SHTF. If I'm not mistaken the gold will be worth several times the debt once the dust settles.

Anonymous onejohn512 June 26, 2014 9:17 AM  

Based on the FFBC (Fairy Forcast Backyard Count) you have 9 Months, 1 Week and 1 Day left before total collapse Regressivus Maximus. Plan accordingly.

Anonymous Roundtine June 26, 2014 9:19 AM  

They point out as well that growth will need to be 3% in every quarter this year to have 1.5% GDP growth for the year, which would be below the post-2008 trend. That's the best case scenario.

Higher oil prices, weaker growth in China, and maybe higher interest rates. One of the plates is not going to be spinning come late summer or early autumn.

Blogger David June 26, 2014 9:19 AM  

I agree, there's simply nothing to add anymore.
The Crystal Meth Economy
http://archive.lewrockwell.com/calderwood/calderwood41.1.html

Blogger El Borak June 26, 2014 9:22 AM  

The cause is the debasement of the population at large.

The founders cause and effect ran the other way: "The loss which America has sustained since the peace, from the pestilent effects of paper money on the necessary confidence between man and man, on the necessary confidence in the public councils, on the industry and morals of the people, and on the character of republican government, constitutes an enormous debt against the States chargeable with this unadvised measure, which must long remain unsatisfied; or rather an accumulation of guilt, which can be expiated no otherwise than by a voluntary sacrifice on the altar of justice, of the power which has been the instrument of it." -- Federalist 44

I suspect man's natural bent toward plunder is reinforced by paper money, and once the cycle gets going it demands more lying than SF writers protecting a child molestor to keep the scheme in place. Once people catch on to the game, they must either fight it or play it. And it's easier and more profitable to play it.

Blogger David June 26, 2014 9:23 AM  

@regressive,
I've expected the balance sheet reconciliation since 1995, when instead we launched into the greatest asset mania in several lifetimes.

No one knows how high is up, but this system depends on exponential mathematics and we are surely in the part of the graph where doubling is causing vast leaps skyward.

Blogger David June 26, 2014 9:29 AM  

Prechter's recent 10 page newsletter showing the relationship between the USA's monetary standards (and the choice to fully disavow them in 1965 when silver was removed from coinage) is astonishingly revelatory.

Most people's entire adult lives have been spent in a debt-funded orgy of partying and self-delusion, all of us fiddling while the Rome that was the mechanism of our prior success was burned to ash.

If no one knows from where prosperity arises, how can prosperity be maintained?

Anonymous Regressivus Maximus June 26, 2014 9:30 AM  

Onejohn right you are then, so Friday the 3rd of April 2015. Can you give me an approximate time?

Anonymous Vidad June 26, 2014 9:30 AM  

"Taking these increasingly fictitious numbers seriously is akin to attempting to foresee future events by counting the numbers of fairies in your backyard."

G-Nome wants to have a word with you.

Anonymous Vidad June 26, 2014 9:33 AM  

I've also thrown my hands up. The data fail consistently to reflect reality.

It's come to a point where a subjective analysis like "things don't seem right" is a better indicator of economic conditions than the stats from the state.

Now the only thing you can trust is that you can't trust.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge(c)2014 June 26, 2014 9:41 AM  

People don't want to borrow from bastards to pay artificially inflated prices for design obsolete things marketed by cartels protected by government - now why is that? From green energy to vaccines to anything government touches now - there's a credibility issue. Would you buy it?


Anonymous Daniel June 26, 2014 9:43 AM  

On the other hand, it might be useful for the SFWA to count the number of fairies in its back yard. Or vast front lawn, for that matter. Iceland or Switzerland might be useful comparison nations vs. the nonsense, but they aren't exactly invited to the global corrections party. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is a pariah.

Anonymous onejohn512 June 26, 2014 9:43 AM  

Regressivus Maximus...Well the time may be hard to nail down with certainty...but again the fairies are indicating that the time will be at or near 9:11 AM Eastern. Yes exactly, that's based on the larger units (months/years) being added before the smaller units (days). That's when we hit FFT (Fairy Foobar Time).

Blogger IM2L844 June 26, 2014 9:50 AM  

But the MAPI herd looks at the stock market as predictive and thinks if we would just tax those iniquitous consumers a little more, with all their bric-a-brac and whatnots, and give the money to teachers, it would solve everything and create a bright shiny future. Think of the children.

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 9:51 AM  

"Taking these increasingly fictitious numbers seriously is akin to attempting to foresee future events by counting the numbers of fairies in your backyard."

Well said.

What was that chapter title? No One Knows Anything? Quite right. Quite right.

Anonymous zen0 June 26, 2014 9:52 AM  

This is bullish for stocks.

Anonymous onejohn512 June 26, 2014 9:57 AM  

Final times and dates of course must be fully analyzed by the boys at the
Fairy Analysis Review Team (FART). They can smell trouble well before it arrives using their Fairy Factor Forecasting Techniques (FFFTs).

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 10:00 AM  

so.. I would like to see a comparison of the US exaggeration of its economy compared to that of the old USSR.

Anonymous Cheddarman June 26, 2014 10:03 AM  

Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing? - Regressivus Maximus

I think I finally have a leg up on that internet super intelligence fellow.

I am developing a predictive model based on cat behavior in a maize.

Since over 65% of consumer spending is by, or influenced by women, my model should vast and far seeing predictive power.

Anonymous Regressivus Maximus June 26, 2014 10:03 AM  

Thanks for the precise forecast. FART is a breath of fresh air to be sure.

Perhaps an easier question would be are we due for death by economic crushing/squeezing, or are we going to hit the wall of reality at 100mph. Based on what I have witnessed in the last two decades, I suspect our grandchildren will be born into Western favelas, as unable to imagine something different as we are to imagine being raised in grand plantation manors.

Blogger IM2L844 June 26, 2014 10:18 AM  

Perhaps an easier question would be are we due for death by economic crushing/squeezing, or are we going to hit the wall of reality at 100mph.

Not the wall, but the floor. Like a car running out of gas we will approach the cliff in fits and sputters then reach terminal velocity shortly thereafter.

OpenID simplytimothy June 26, 2014 10:25 AM  

Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing? I have seen catastrophic collapse predicted for at least the last five years. What will reliable indicators be?

Paying 6 bucks for 1 lb of Barilla pasta and 12 ounces of canned clams says it all for me.

Anonymous Athor Pel June 26, 2014 10:29 AM  

" Regressivus MaximusJune 26, 2014 10:03 AM
...
Perhaps an easier question would be are we due for death by economic crushing/squeezing, or are we going to hit the wall of reality at 100mph.
..."


It's a train that has run out of track, at the edge of a cliff. The train is on its way to the ground and the engineer is still stoking the boiler.

Anonymous takin' a look June 26, 2014 10:34 AM  

" Regressivus Maximus June 26, 2014 9:14 AM

Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing? I have seen catastrophic collapse predicted for at least the last five years."

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/04/10/g20-economy-brics-idINDEEA390GA20140410

You have BRICS and you the Shanghai Cooperative. both are attempts at a parallel IMF and UN. Both are a big "Ef U" to the West. They got both spooked and VERY pissed off when that "ghost" airliner entered Dutch airspace at a major conference shortly after that Malaysian flight went "down". They are getting ready to let us die while they save their own hides.

Anonymous Hunsdon June 26, 2014 10:37 AM  

@ Nate: I would like to see a comparison of the US exaggeration of its economy compared to that of the old USSR.

Hunsdon: What did Marx say? The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce?

Anonymous Vidad June 26, 2014 10:38 AM  

Cheddarman: "I am developing a predictive model based on cat behavior in a maize."

In a maze of maize?

Anonymous Vidad June 26, 2014 10:39 AM  

With your ear to the ground? So you can stalk the stocks with your stalks, searching for a kernel of truth?

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 10:55 AM  

"Paying 6 bucks for 1 lb of Barilla pasta and 12 ounces of canned clams says it all for me."

and this is where Vox and I part ways. Not living in the US... Vox doesn't see what is happening on the ground. Vox doesn't see the literally weekly increases in prices of... well everything.

Blogger rycamor June 26, 2014 11:08 AM  

Nate, or the regular shaving down the size of products too. Lots of chicanery going on to fool you into thinking it's all good.

The one positive result is that the average American caloric consumption has started to trend downward over the past few years. Although, I suspect the quality of those calories is also trending downward.

Blogger rycamor June 26, 2014 11:08 AM  

Let's all try to ignore Vidad's incredibly obvious and goofy sense of humor.

Anonymous Rick Johnsmeyer June 26, 2014 11:15 AM  

Interesting how the Dow rose almost 50 points yesterday, after the GDP news was announced. There was a momentary dip for a few minutes, but then a nice little rebound to finish the day ahead.

It's almost like the market was briefly stung by the news, until everyone remembered that they had already "decoupled" from the US domestic economy, and continued to party on. One does wonder just how long the party can go.

OpenID luagha June 26, 2014 11:16 AM  

Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing? - Regressivus Maximus

Once a Republican is in office in the US with a Republican House and Senate, they'll begin relentlessly talking down the economy in the hopes of triggering the crash just like they did with the mortgage finance crisis.

So I'd put my money on it lingering just past Obama's presidency into the next.

Blogger rycamor June 26, 2014 11:25 AM  

luagha, interesting point, and that would also coincide well with Nate's ~2016 prediction.

Anonymous Will Best June 26, 2014 11:26 AM  

I personally find their fictional data highly useful. It moves the investing herd in a different way than the insiders are moving and makes it easier to figure out what you should actually do.

and this is where Vox and I part ways. Not living in the US... Vox doesn't see what is happening on the ground. Vox doesn't see the literally weekly increases in prices of... well everything.

I haven't really seen much of an increase in price or quantity decrease in the last 6 months. Then again we don't really ever shop the center of the store. If anything we have gotten a bit of a reprieve now that the US crops have started to be harvested and they are charging the same price as last year. I love this time of year for affordable berries.

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 11:37 AM  

Will... you can rest assured that food prices are not stable or falling. If they were Food and Energy would be used in the price index calculations to help hide the inflation numbers.

Blogger Scott X June 26, 2014 11:38 AM  

Can anybody name an instance when a fiat currency was either rendered worthless or removed from circulation other then Wiemar Germany, Zimboonwe or Argentina? Is there a list somewhere?

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 11:42 AM  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Its happened 39 times.

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 11:43 AM  

in case you're lazy and don't want to follow the link...

4 Examples of hyperinflation

4.1 Angola
4.2 Argentina
4.3 Armenia
4.4 Austria
4.5 Azerbaijan
4.6 Belarus
4.7 Bolivia
4.8 Bosnia and Herzegovina
4.9 Brazil
4.10 Bulgaria
4.11 Chile
4.12 China
4.13 Estonia
4.14 France
4.15 Free City of Danzig
4.16 Georgia
4.17 Germany (Weimar Republic)
4.18 Greece
4.19 Hungary, 1923–24
4.20 Hungary, 1945–46
4.21 Kazakhstan
4.22 Kyrgyzstan
4.23 Serbian Krajina
4.24 North Korea
4.25 Nicaragua
4.26 Peru
4.27 Philippines
4.28 Poland, 1923–1924
4.29 Poland, 1989–1990
4.30 Republika Srpska
4.31 Soviet Union / Russian Federation
4.32 Taiwan
4.33 Tajikistan
4.34 Turkmenistan
4.35 Ukraine
4.36 Uzbekistan
4.37 Yugoslavia
4.38 Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo)
4.39 Zimbabwe

Blogger Scott X June 26, 2014 11:51 AM  

Nevermind, I found a list....wow...quite a list.

http://trader2trader.wordpress.com/tag/historic-graphs/page/3/

Anonymous Jack Amok June 26, 2014 12:16 PM  

Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing?

If I remember, Nate had 2016, but I forget what calculations he based that on. And somebody had 2033 as an outer limit.

OpenID simplytimothy June 26, 2014 12:18 PM  

....Nate's ~2016 prediction.

??

Anonymous Jack Amok June 26, 2014 12:20 PM  

Will... you can rest assured that food prices are not stable or falling. If they were Food and Energy would be used in the price index calculations to help hide the inflation numbers.

Sort of says it all right there, doesn't it? I mean, why would you want to include necessities in any sort of index for the cost of living? Much more informative to know how we're doing in terms of iPods and Justin Beiber T-shirts.

Anonymous revrogers June 26, 2014 12:25 PM  

OT or tangentially related: I recently bought the graphic edition of Amity Shlaes The Forgotten Man and was wondering about evaluations of her work.

Blogger rycamor June 26, 2014 12:29 PM  

And as I mentioned before, the quality of the cheaper food is going downhill fast. Among the middle-lower classes high-fructose corn syrup is now the primary source of calories. It's in just about every processed food. You'll even find it in jars of pickles. So even when prices don't go up, be very suspicious of falling quality.

Anonymous Jack Amok June 26, 2014 12:34 PM  

Ah, found it... from the Great Inflation-Deflation debate, Nate's final entry:

My prediction is simple. As the United States continues to pile on debt it becomes more and more obvious to everyone that the debt can never be paid, and in fact, it will not even be serviced. Some time in 2015 the US will reach a debt to income ratio where such a large percentage of its income is being used to service the debt lenders simply will refuse to expose themselves further. At that point even the pretense of borrowing money will be gone. The only choice the US will have is outright counterfeiting via the Fed. This will result in devaluing the currency to such a degree that the major holders of dollars will dump them. This sets off the chain reaction of hyper-velocity.

So Nate said that if we didn't have hyper-inflation by 2016, he would concede the debate.

BTW Nate, did this ever happen:

Nate is putting the debate into epub format which will be cleaned up a little for typos and then made available as a free ebook for future reference.

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 12:49 PM  

We're still working on it. Vox and I are both swamped in nearly exactly the same ways.

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 12:49 PM  

progress toward that end has been made though. But other more pressing projects have pushed it back.

Blogger James Dixon June 26, 2014 1:01 PM  

> ...is akin to attempting to foresee future events by counting the numbers of fairies in your backyard.

I don't know, Vox. If I start talking to people about the number of fairies in my back yard, I think I can predict the following events fairly well. :)

> Today, no nation of significance is non-fiat.

True, but there are a couple of countries making preparations to remedy that situation, namely India and China. And both the US and Russia could probably migrate to an energy based currency if they wanted to.

> Anyone care to venture how long we have before the wheels come off this thing?

Nate says within the next two years. Vox thinks we have about 20 years to go.

The absolute maximum is the point at which all federal tax revenues are required to service the debt. Assuming a 5% interest rate, a $2.5T tax base, and a $1T/year debt increase, any of which is subject to change, that would be about 33 more years.

> Let's all try to ignore Vidad's incredibly obvious and goofy sense of humor.

A genius is never appreciated in his own time. :) You have my admiration, Vidad.

> One does wonder just how long the party can go.

Aye. That's the $64K question.

> So I'd put my money on it lingering just past Obama's presidency into the next.

You're assuming Hillary won't beat Jeb? I'd be betting otherwise.

Blogger James Dixon June 26, 2014 1:02 PM  

> We're still working on it. Vox and I are both swamped in nearly exactly the same ways.

Excuses, excuses. :)

Anonymous Vidad June 26, 2014 2:11 PM  

rycamor: "Let's all try to ignore Vidad's incredibly obvious and goofy sense of humor."

I know, know, know you wanted to write "corny" instead of "goofy." You're just too cool to let it out. FAKER

Anonymous Vidad June 26, 2014 2:13 PM  

@James Dixon

;)

@ Nate

I'm with you on the 2016 bet. There's no way I can see this party continuing. No way.

Anonymous Jack Amok June 26, 2014 2:39 PM  

I don't know, Vox. If I start talking to people about the number of fairies in my back yard, I think I can predict the following events fairly well. :)

Wait, are we talking about economics, or SF/F conventions?

Nate says within the next two years. Vox thinks we have about 20 years to go.

Wasn't Vox's number 20 years at the most?

Blogger rycamor June 26, 2014 2:55 PM  

So, @2016, we get a Republican president, the news becomes a thundering herd of negative economic stories, and ... what? Stock market crash, or is the stock market so untethered from the regular economy that it won't matter? New collapse of personal debt as people refuse to buy that new house or new car? Jobless rates go up as companies refuse to hire, new college grads now completely SOL? Municipal governments start going bankrupt? Gas prices shoot to $8/gal, making that 2-hr commute job even less profitable? More white-collar companies let people work from home as the obvious cost saver, ergo the auto industry and commercial real estate go into death spirals? Invest in internet infrastructure as the obvious growth industry? As well as the old standby, liquor, of course.

Blogger IM2L844 June 26, 2014 3:06 PM  

Wasn't Vox's number 20 years at the most?

2033

~19 and counting down

Blogger James Dixon June 26, 2014 3:17 PM  

> Wasn't Vox's number 20 years at the most?

Vox has always been clear that his number is a general estimate, not an exact date.

Blogger James Dixon June 26, 2014 3:22 PM  

> Wait, are we talking about economics, or SF/F conventions?

Take your pick, Jack. :) Though the closest a con could get to my back yard would probably have to be up at Morgantown (there have been a few small ones there over the years, but they never made a go of it), and I doubt that would attract the high flyers of the SFWA world.

Anonymous MUltan June 26, 2014 5:06 PM  

I just finished reading Heinlein's 1939 first-written and last-published novel: "For Us the Living". He lays out an economic plan that is still relevant today - having a government bank using mutual insurance to cover bad loans instead of interest, gradually raising the reserve requirements to 100% for private banks, implementing increases in the money supply to match production, with the increases credited 1/2 as a basic income scheme and 1/2 as a negative VAT for business. A lot of the book reads like a policy paper, but is still a good read.

Anonymous Will Best June 26, 2014 6:08 PM  

Sort of says it all right there, doesn't it? I mean, why would you want to include necessities in any sort of index for the cost of living? Much more informative to know how we're doing in terms of iPods and Justin Beiber T-shirts.

Well food prices are cyclical, for example berries run over $4/lb in the off-season and come in under $2/lb during season. And food can even have multi-year events that affect supply. However, there is no reason they couldn't use a 3-year seasonally adjusted average. Same with energy.

Anonymous TimP June 26, 2014 6:45 PM  

On the subject of food prices it's only been six months since I started doing my own grocery shopping, but I'm already getting the feeling that prices have gone up here in Australia as well.

Ignoring the obvious changes with seasonal fruit, things like tinned fruit I'm sure is more expensive, lamb chops have gone up something like 12%, and chicken seems to have gone up quite noticeably.

I do note though that I'm pretty sure the cheapest wines have got cheaper, so that's nice. ;-)

Anonymous Jack Amok June 26, 2014 7:34 PM  

And food can even have multi-year events that affect supply.

True. Idiotic regulations are usually multi-year events.


Anonymous A Kind of Alaska June 26, 2014 9:56 PM  

"Once a Republican is in office in the US with a Republican House and Senate,"

Simply based on the demographics of importing a new and very needy people, I very much doubt this can ever happen again. Shit, I don't really think there can ever be a Republican president ever, ever again. Just the other day, in a Republican Senate primary, the RINO candidate won over the actual conservative, because of a flood of black and liberal Dem voters --- in a Republican primary. This country is toast, and white secession is now the only option.

Besides, if the GOP are stupid enough to nominate Bush, Hillary will crush him like a bug. The Bush name is universally hated, the entire press and Cathedral apparatus will practically force Hillary on us. And also because first woman president. I have no idea who the shit-head Repukes could nominate, who could possibly stand up against this. Not that any of them really want to. Nope, it's Dems until this thing sinks to the bottom of the sea.

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 10:52 PM  

"I'm with you on the 2016 bet. There's no way I can see this party continuing. No way."

I figure its a win win. If it goes KaBoom... telling everyone we predicted it will make our rice cakes a water a little more edible.

if it doesn't... we can say... "look! we're not eating rice cakes and water!"

Blogger Nate June 26, 2014 10:53 PM  

"Besides, if the GOP are stupid enough to nominate Bush, Hillary will crush him like a bug. "

Actually there is a very good article that explains exactly why Hillary doesn't have a prayer. In a word... she's old. Millenials don't do old. And there no way a democrat wins without them.

Anonymous A Kind of Alaska June 26, 2014 11:17 PM  

Maybe so, but the larger theory holds, though: if the GOP runs Jeb Bush he's dead in the water, simply because that name is now so hated. Besides, if millenials don't do hold, how much more do they not do Repukes. They'd have to feel a whole lot more pain than now, and realize it was Dem policies that were causing that pain, before they'd even think about the GOP.

It doesn't make a difference anyway, because Repukes don't make a difference. I can't off the top of my head think of a single prominent politician (viz., one in possible presidential orbit) who'd really actually be willing to do what really actually needs to be done to save this country. Closest I can think of is Scott Walker, and he's none too close. It won't happen.

Anonymous A Visitor June 27, 2014 12:39 AM  

I'm still in disbelief. Amidst the job hunting and contemplating going back to school, it's just too damn depressing. I'm only 27 and yet we have a Communist SOB in the White House, feckless politicians in both houses of the legislative branch, and 9 robed fools on SCOTUS that issue occasional decent rulings like a few days ago (apparently, NSA records were lost like Lehrner's and the EPA's), and the country's about to be set ablaze.

People still go on as if nothing is wrong. Do they not care? Are they in denial? I'm just contemplating how to cut my losses and prepare for what's coming. I have a sizeable chunk of change left in one bank account I've thought to convert to hard assets, specifically gold, silver, and ammunition.

Thoughts?

On a lighter note, for you electronic fans, some gold ol' AVB: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLHrB0PxvIU

Blogger rycamor June 27, 2014 2:36 AM  

A Visitor June 27, 2014 12:39 AM
Thoughts?


A. Only 27 and have a "sizable chunk of change" in a bank account? You're sitting on a big advantage. Yes spend a sizable percentage in the manner you describe. And hold cash. Cash is better than nonexistent money in a bank account.

B. Do not go back to school. These days it is rarely worth what it costs, and your time itself is a big cost.

C. No more job hunting. Create your own business, out of something you can do now. Even if it is small and simple. Or even multiple businesses. Don't worry about your degree or social class. If you can make $10/hr mowing lawns or painting houses, that still beats spending the next 3 months pounding pavement.

D. Learn to garden, and live somewhere that you can. Assuming all else fails, it might even save your life, but it will at least save your health and your dignity from the government handout food you'll be forced to choke down otherwise. Add some chickens or other small animals if possible. Food is the recession-proof industry.

America is sitting on an incredible amount of land that can be turned into natural resources simply by planting the right things. Yet, you'll see acre after acre of suburban lawns with crepe myrtle trees instead of peach trees, flower gardens instead of vegetables, shrubs instead of berry bushes, leaves raked and thrown in the garbage instead of composted into soil... all those things are as good as money in the bank when the going gets rough.

Anonymous A Plate of Shrimp June 27, 2014 2:41 AM  

"Learn to garden, and live somewhere that you can. Assuming all else fails, it might even save your life, but it will at least save your health"

Sounds like somebody's been reading Mindweapon. Or hmmm, maybe you ARE MW.

Blogger Wayne Earl June 27, 2014 5:31 AM  

The economy is a woman. I think I understand now.

We are in transition from Capitalism to Solipsism. From a "Market" economy to a "Fuck it" economy, cause one thing led to another, and all of a sudden, Bernanke pumped me full of more gooey currency.... you can't blame a girl for that now, canya?

Fellas....the way through this is the Way We've Always Ran This Shit(tm). Grow a pair, and keep yo pimp hand stong, my brothas.

Anonymous John Regan June 27, 2014 9:46 AM  

A little propaganda in the form of a planted story by the Fed.

It does get a little tiresome, doesn't it?

Still, think it through. If rates start to go up that will prompt borrowing from those able and willing to borrow, because if they wait it will be more expensive. My thinking - and, I believe, VD's - is that there's no pent up demand out there to tap into, so raising rates will accomplish nothing more than devastation to the banking sector: existing debt held will decline in value and no new higher interest loans will offset that.

On the other hand, why can't they just keep lending to the USG at higher and higher rates to sort of neutralize the enormous hit to their portfolio? Maybe they can.

It's all a circle jerk, of course, having nothing to do with the real economy. But maybe it preserves the illusions that the PTB need preserved for longer than they otherwise would be.

OpenID simplytimothy June 27, 2014 9:48 AM  

. I'm only 27 and yet we have a Communist SOB in the White House, feckless politicians in both houses of the legislative branch, and 9 robed fools on SCOTUS that issue occasional decent rulings like a few days ago (apparently, NSA records were lost like Lehrner's and the EPA's), and the country's about to be set ablaze.

It warms my heart that a 27 year old sees this.

I cannot speak to the assetts as I am a poor man. However, I can relate that living in the country near a small town gives me peace of mind. I have 2 gardens that together make about 1/4 acre and after last years learning experiences, I expect to can my vegetables for the winter. I have learned what vegetables I can eat in early spring when the larder is running low. I will be buying a slaughtered hog this fall for putting up and I will be buying my neighbor's bullets for him so that he can shoot me a deer, turkey, bear for meat and keep the remainder of the bullets for himself.

One big lesson I learned is that it takes time and experience to learn how to survive w/o the larger world out there, so it is important to gain that experience while things are relatively easy.

I also have friends and neighbors who grew up on this land for generations; they impart a wealth of knowledge. More importantly, they are decent and kind people.

Finally, I like to remember the Pilgrims who came here with nothing and built our fair land. Even if all falls part, we will still have more wealth then they could ever dream of. With that starting point, men and women of good, Godly character can rebuild this land and have fun again.


Anonymous Stilicho June 27, 2014 12:23 PM  

Actually there is a very good article that explains exactly why Hillary doesn't have a prayer. In a word... she's old. Millenials don't do old. And there no way a democrat wins without them.

Hillary is older than the dirt she sleeps in.

Blogger rycamor June 27, 2014 3:11 PM  

A Plate of Shrimp June 27, 2014 2:41 AM
"Learn to garden, and live somewhere that you can. Assuming all else fails, it might even save your life, but it will at least save your health"

Sounds like somebody's been reading Mindweapon. Or hmmm, maybe you ARE MW.


Nope. Thanks for playing, though.

Actually, I have no idea who Mindweapon is.

Anonymous A Kind of Alaska June 28, 2014 9:33 AM  

"Actually, I have no idea who Mindweapon is."

Then don't say snotty things like "thanks for playing." Manners, dude.

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